The Upper Potomac River basin—from Cumberland through Harpers Ferry to the Shenandoah confluence—is facing a significant drought in spring 2026. About 75% of the basin is in drought, with over 30% in severe conditions, and river levels are near record lows—some gauges showing flows around 50% of normal. A long-term rainfall deficit (5+ inches below normal), a warm, dry winter, and weak groundwater recharge are key factors. Starting spring this low raises concerns for summer water supply.
For river users, expect clearer, lower water with fish concentrated in deeper holes and structure, making them more sensitive. Boating is more challenging with exposed rocks and shallow areas, while warmer, slower water can stress fish. While occasional rain may help, sustained rainfall is needed to recover. Without it, low flows and tougher conditions are likely to continue into summer.